I think over time the limitations of the fediverse are becoming more obvious. It's not really any specific event, but my intuition is that as it gets more popular it's also getting more like Twitter. The Vampire Castle of constant antagonism. The clueless mainstreamers and their liberal hot takes. The creepy replies from random doods you don't know, and so on.
I'm more of a water cooler conversation guy than a sniping at the enemy from the fortified position one.
In the long run I think the Zap kind of design is better. But less accidental oversharing also means slower rate of adoption. So it's a tortoise and hare kind of race.